By Karen | KarenK Sells AZ
November 6, 2026
Somewhere between the first pumpkin spice latte and the last leftover turkey sandwich, a lot of people decide the real estate market is on pause until January.
It isn’t. It’s just quieter, and quiet can work in your favor if you know how to use it.
Here’s what the latest numbers say and what I’d do with them.
What October told us
The newest data out this week shows a market that keeps tilting toward buyers. Active listings across Metro Phoenix rose 6.8% year over year to 27,427 in October, while listings under contract fell 13.5%. Closed sales dropped 9.8%, and the median sales price slipped 1.5% to $448,000.
One detail I like, because it’s good news for sellers: homes that did sell went under contract slightly faster than a year ago, at a median of 50 days versus 53. Buyers are still buying. They’re just choosier, and they know they have options.
If you’re a buyer
Holiday season is one of the best times to buy, and almost nobody treats it that way.
Less competition. Fewer people are touring homes between now and New Year’s, so you’re not fighting a crowd for every listing.
Motivated sellers. Anyone listing in November or December usually has a reason: a relocation, a year-end deadline, or a house that’s already been sitting. With more homes available and fewer going under contract, buyers may have more room to negotiate on price, closing costs, repairs, and other concessions.
Spring changes the math. When the spring surge arrives, so do the other buyers. The leverage you have now gets harder to find.
The tradeoff is rates. Higher mortgage rates are still a challenge, and while refinancing could help if rates fall, where rates go next remains uncertain. That’s why I never tell anyone to buy on a rate prediction. Buy because the home fits your life and the numbers work today, and treat any future refinance as a bonus.
If you’re a seller
This is the part where I get direct. Waiting for spring is a legitimate strategy, but it isn’t automatically the smart one.
The case for listing now: you’ll have fewer competing homes, and the buyers who are out looking are serious. People don’t tour houses in December for fun. If you’re ready and your price is right, you can stand out.
The case for waiting: spring brings more buyers. If your home needs work, or you aren’t in a rush, waiting a few months to prepare can pay off.
What decides the outcome isn’t the calendar. It’s your price. In this market, realistic pricing, strong marketing, and good presentation are what separate homes that sell from homes that sit. A well-priced listing in December will beat an overpriced one in April every time.
If you’re thinking about listing over the holidays:
Light it up. Short days mean darker showings. Open the blinds, turn on every light, and make the house feel warm.
Keep the decor light. A little seasonal touch is lovely. A full North Pole takeover makes it harder for buyers to picture their own life there.
Be flexible on showings. Holiday schedules are chaotic. The easier you make it to see your home, the better.
Price with data, not hope. Ask your agent for recent closed sales, not just list prices.
It depends on where you are in the Valley
Metro-wide numbers only tell part of the story. Here’s how a few communities looked in the latest snapshot:
Chandler: median price of $513,000, with homes averaging 59 days on the market, the shortest of the four cities examined.
Phoenix: median price of $470,000, averaging 68 days on the market.
Gilbert: median price of $605,000, averaging 76 days on the market.
Scottsdale: median price of $1.1 million, averaging 83 days on the market.
In each of these cities, homes sold for about 97 to 98 percent of their asking price on average. That’s a useful number. Buyers still have room to negotiate, but sellers who price correctly aren’t giving away much.
So, wait for spring?
Here’s how I’d decide.
Buyers: if you’re financially ready and you’ve found the right home, don’t wait just because it’s the holidays. The quiet season is your window.
Sellers: if you need or want to move, list when you’re ready. Waiting only helps if you use the time to prepare and price smartly.
Everyone: talk to someone who can show you what’s happening in your specific neighborhood, not just the metro average.
The market is moving whether you’re moving or not. What matters is having a plan.
Wondering what the holiday market means for your move? Let’s talk it through. Reach out here.
And if you want monthly market insights delivered to your inbox, sign up for The Valley Insider at karenksellsaz.com. Same Instinct. New Investment.
Sources: AZ Big Media, “Metro Phoenix housing market shifts deeper into buyer’s territory” (November 5, 2026); Cromford Market Index