Is Now a Good Time to Buy in Arizona?

By Karen | KarenK Sells AZ

August 13, 2026

It's the question I get asked more than any other right now. And my honest answer is: yes — if you go in with the right expectations.

Not because it's always a good time to buy. It isn't. But because the data coming out of Greater Phoenix right now tells a story that serious buyers shouldn't ignore.

What the numbers are actually saying

The July 2026 ARMLS data was released, and on the surface it looks like a slow market. Closed sales dropped month-over-month, homes under contract slipped, and new listings eased. But those declines are mostly the Phoenix summer doing what it always does — buyers, sellers and our general snowbird population waits out the heat. Theravenscroftgroup

Look at the year-over-year picture and the story changes. The median sale price held at $450,000 — up 2.27% from July 2025. Closed sales edged up year-over-year. Greater Phoenix carried 23,743 active listings in July, which is slightly below a year ago. Theravenscroftgroup

What does that tell us? Prices are stable and trending modestly upward. Demand is real. And inventory, while elevated compared to the pandemic years, is not overwhelming the market.

In ARMLS's own words, the first half of 2026 showed a market “slowly correcting its imbalance." In other words, demand has firmed up enough to stop prices from sliding, but not enough to push them higher. That is actually a window. And windows don't stay open. Theravenscroftgroup

This is not a buyer's market in the dramatic sense

Let me be direct about something. When people hear “buyer's market" they often picture desperate sellers, collapsing prices, and deals everywhere. That's not what Greater Phoenix looks like right now.

This is not a frozen market. It is not a collapsing market. What we have is a market that has become more selective, more localized, and much more strategy-driven than it has been in years.

Buyers have more leverage than they did in 2021 and 2022 — more time to evaluate, more room to negotiate, and more options to choose from. That narrow spread between median list and sale price is the market's way of saying: priced right, homes still sell close to ask. However, the room for aspirational pricing has closed. Theravenscroftgroup

Sellers who price correctly are moving homes. Buyers who come in prepared are winning deals. That's a balanced, functional market; and for a first-time buyer or someone who sat on the sidelines during the frenzy, it's a far better environment than anything we saw between 2020 and 2023.

What about the luxury market?

Despite what national headlines might suggest, sales above $1 million remain among the strongest-performing segments across the Valley. Cash-heavy buyers and stock-market wealth continue playing a major role, making that segment far less sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations than the broader market. Many luxury buyers still view Phoenix as relatively undervalued compared to California and Colorado.

In other words, the high end is holding. This isn't a market in distress. It's a market finding its footing.

The rate reality

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to roughly 6.69% in early August 2026 which is its highest level in over a year, according to Freddie Mac. That matters. It affects monthly payments and buying power, and anyone who tells you otherwise isn't being honest with you. Phoenix Homes

What doesn't always make the headlines: many sellers in Greater Phoenix are currently offering concessions including rate buydowns, closing cost contributions, and repair credits to attract serious buyers. That means the sticker price isn't always the real cost of buying right now. A well-negotiated deal in this market can offset a meaningful portion of what higher rates would otherwise cost you monthly.

Here's what I tell buyers who are waiting for rates to drop: the buyers who wait for perfect conditions often miss good ones. Buyers appear to be adapting rather than stepping away altogether. The focus has shifted toward long-term value and monthly affordability rather than perfectly timing the market.

You can refinance a rate. You can't go back and buy the home you wanted at the price it was listed at six months ago.

So, what now? Is it a good time to buy?

If you're financially ready, pre-approved, and clear on what you're looking for — yes. The Greater Phoenix market right now rewards prepared buyers. There's more inventory than there was two years ago, sellers are more negotiable than they were during the frenzy, and prices are stable rather than spiking.

That combination won't last indefinitely. Phoenix's economy continues to grow faster than the nation's — and the demand that drives with it doesn't disappear, it just takes a breath in the summer. Norada Real Estate

This is that breath. Use it.

Thinking about making a move in Greater Phoenix and want an honest read on what the market looks like for your specific situation? Let's talk. Reach out here.

Sources: ARMLS July 2026 Market Data via phoenixhomes.com, AZ Big Media, The Ravenscroft Group